En momentos en que Washington evalúa un impuesto a las importaciones, un estudio de la industria automotriz sugiere que la medida infligiría el golpe más fuerte a Jaguar Land Rover, de Tata Motors, mientras que beneficiaría a Tesla y Ford.

Bloomberg

En lo que denomina un “ejercicio de reflexión”, Baum & Associates, firma investigadora del sector, estima que la mayoría de las compañías automotrices tendrían que subir los precios de sus vehículos en miles de dólares –más de 17 mil dólares (350 mil pesos) por vehículo en el caso de Jaguar Land Rover– para contrarrestar los costos más altos que supondría el ajuste fiscal en la frontera propuesto por los legisladores republicanos.

Ford tendría que considerar el menor aumento de precio entre las grandes automotrices, de unos 282 dólares (5 mil 800 pesos) por vehículo, seguida de General Motors, de 995 dólares (20 mil pesos), según el informe.

Los cálculos apuntan a demostrar el impacto relativo del plan fiscal en cada empresa automotriz, según Alan Baum, fundador de Baum & Associates, con sede en Michigan. Es improbable que los fabricantes de automóviles aumenten los precios en más de unos pocos miles de dólares por vehículo y tendrán que soportar parte de la carga de un gravamen más alto.

Los precios de los vehículos de Volvo y VW tendrían que aumentar 7 mil 600 dólares (156 mil pesos) y 6 mil 800 dólares (140 mil pesos) en promedio, respectivamente, según estimaciones de Baum & Associates, que asesora a proveedores. Se dice que el presidente Donald Trump tendría la intención de aplicar el impuesto fronterizo tras haberlo considerado demasiado complicado en un principio.

La propuesta de comenzar a gravar las importaciones y las ventas locales y eximir de impuestos a las exportaciones modificaría completamente el código tributario estadounidense. General Electric y Boeing se cuentan entre los fabricantes estadounidenses que apoyan la idea, en tanto que Toyota y Wal-Mart son algunos de los gigantes empresariales que advierten que derivará aumentos en los precios de productos que van desde alimentos, ropa, gasolina hasta autopartes.

El informe de Baum & Associates hace referencia a las importaciones tanto de vehículos terminados como de partes para autos locales que se fabrican en el exterior. La única automotriz que podría mantener los precios sin cambios sería Tesla, fabricante del sedán Model S.

tabla-land-rover

Aumento por auto en dólares previsto por Baum & Associates

 

El impuesto fronterizo propuesto induciría a las automotrices a aumentar la provisión y producción de piezas estadounidenses procedentes de plantas existentes de ensamblaje de vehículos, según el informe. Empresas del sector automotor como Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Hyundai y KIA también podrían considerar la expansión de sus operaciones en Estados Unidos o crear nueva capacidad.

Daño a vecinos

Si se desaceleran las ventas de vehículos, el impuesto crearía un incentivo para que las automotrices mantuviesen en funcionamiento las plantas en Estados Unidos en detrimento de las de Canadá y México.

Eso alentaría a Fiat Chrysler Automobiles a acelerar la conversión de su fábrica en Sterling Heights, Michigan, para fabricar camionetas livianas allí y no en México, y sumar producción de camiones pesados y medianos en la planta, dijo Dan Luria, economista del Michigan Manufacturing Technology Center en Ann Harbor y principal autor del informe de Baum & Associates

Nissan podría exportar más de México a mercados latinoamericanos y menos a Estados Unidos. Volkswagen podría construir otra planta de ensamblaje en Estados Unidos. Mazda y Mitsubishi, que dependen completamente de las importaciones al mercado estadounidense, tendrían que abandonar este mercado o pagar a otros fabricantes para el montaje de sus vehículos, dijo Luria.

En su formato actual, el impuesto fronterizo propuesto podría derivar en una producción de más de 1 millón de vehículos adicionales en Estados Unidos y 50 mil puestos de trabajos más en las fábricas automotrices y de ensamblaje, dijo Luria.

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